INFRASTRUCTURE
Technical Stack
Every component is purpose-built for autonomous weather alpha. No vendor lock-in, no cloud dependencies beyond weather APIs.
DATA FLOW
COMPONENT REGISTRY
Aeterna Engine V8.1Prediction
Dual mean+variance gradient boosting model. Optuna-tuned hyperparameters. 38 engineered features per station/date.
Aeterna CDF + PlattCalibration
Normal distribution maps predictions to bracket probabilities. Platt scaling corrects systematic biases.
Open-Meteo EnsembleWeather Data
GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM multi-model forecasts. Temperature, wind, precipitation. Updated every 6 hours.
Polymarket CLOBExecution
Order placement on Polygon via CLOB API. Supports limit and market orders with automatic execution.
FastAPI ServerBackend
REST API serving markets, signals, portfolio data, trade execution. Auto-refresh every 30 seconds.
SQLite StorageDatabase
Market prices, forecast history, paper trades. Lightweight, zero-config, ACID-compliant.
SwiftUI iOS AppClient
Native iOS 17+ app. Real-time data, trade execution, Kelly sizing, auto-trading mode.
Kelly Risk EngineRisk
Half-Kelly sizing. Max 20% fraction. 7% minimum edge. 10% minimum model probability.
DEPENDENCIES